Virginia Transportation Modeling Program


Virginia Statewide Travel Demand Model

 VSM model region

Developer:
Wilbur Smith and Associates

Completion Year:
 2017

Base Year:
 2015

Forecast Year:
 2040

2015 Population:
7,079,000

Jurisdictions:
Entire State of Visrginia

Internal TAZs:
1,642 (Total); 1,060 (VA) and 582 (Non-VA)

Internal sub-TAZs:
7,007 (Total); 6,425 (VA) and 582 (Non-VA)

Software:
 CUBE Voyager

Trip Purposes:
• Long Distance (trip length >100 minutes): Business, Tourist, Other
• Short Distance (trip length < 100 minutes): Home-Based Work (HBW), Home-Based Other (HBO), Non-Home Based (NHB)

Time Period Modeled:

Modes:
• Passenger: Vehicle (limited toll evaluation ability), Rail
• Freight: Heavy Trucks (OD trips are forecasted for rail and air modes as well as ports)

*partial

 

Regional Characteristics

The primary model area includes the entire state and portions of surrounding states in order to adequately capture travel into and out of the state. Likewise in order to sufficiently characterize long-distance interstate passenger and freight movements, the continental United States is included in the model area as well. However, the model is intended to forecast intercity (non-urbanized) travel primarily within the state of Virginia.

 

Travel Characteristics

Passenger

In Virginia, over 95% of the daily passenger trips are 100 minutes or less in length. Long distance passenger trips represent the remainder but account for 27% of interstate and arterial VMT. For in-state long distance travel Richmond has the highest trip production rates, especially for business trips while Virginia Beach has the highest trip attraction rate for tourists. When considering trips from all over the U.S. Washington D.C. has by far the highest trip rates. Intrastate passenger rail trips totaled 18,877 per day. The passenger mode share of air for in-state trips (only 361 trips per day for year 2000) is too insignificant to be included in the model set. Special generators included in the statewide model are few as only those outside the urban regions are applicable: Natural Bridge, Wintergreen resort, Assateague Island, Fort A.P. Hill, The Homestead, Luray Caverns and Shenandoah National Park.

Freight

By mode the largest freight movements (by tonnage) are trucks with 60%, followed by rail (35%), water (4%) and air (0.1%). More than half (56%) of the freight movements originate and/or terminate in the state. The remainder is thru movements (44%). By region the city of Norfolk leads with 13% of total Virginia freight movements followed by the city of Fairfax (11.8%). The most popular destination for freight movements in the state is Fairfax County, which accounts for 20.5 percent of all terminating freight shipments. Freight movements are estimated to nearly double by 2025 -increasing 97%- with very little shift in overall mode share.

Model Contact

Peng Xiao

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Travel Model Data Request Form

 

 

Page last modified: Nov. 9, 2017